More ostrich

I had a transfusion yesterday. It took six hours. By the time I was done, I had no energy to reply to the extremely thoughtful comments I received in relationship to More about AG Holder as an ostrich. I feel better this morning, so I will use this post to reply to the comments and, more importantly, concentrate on the 16 other social science variables specified by Dr. Oleson to get at the issue of a defendant’s likelihood to reoffend.

Let’s face it friends, “race” is low-hanging fruit. It is too easy to attack, although the social science data on race when used as a predictive metric for sentencing is not really about genetics (“race”) as a causative factor in crime. It is about being correlated with crime, and there is a huge difference between the two (causation and correlation). But the word “race” is too freighted with the notion of “discrimination,” so let’s just agree for the sake of argument that empirical data on “race” will never be used at sentencing.

OK. But what about the other social science predictors? Things like gender. Or socio-economic background. The things that our delicate AG Holder seemed so frightened about.

Dr. Oleson’s complete list, with the exception of race, is set out below together with the page of his second article (attached to yesterday’s post) where the discussion about the variable is found initially:

1. Criminal Companions ……………………….. 1353
2. Criminogenic Needs …………………………. 1354
3. Antisocial Personality ……………………….. 1354
4. Adult Criminal History ………………………. 1355
5. Race .……………………………………… 1356
6. Pre-Adult Antisocial Behavior ………………… 1359
7. Family Rearing Practices …………………….. 1359
8. Social Achievement ………………………….. 1360
9. Interpersonal Conflict ……………………….. 1361
10. Current Age ………………………………… 1361
11. Substance Abuse ……………………………. 1362
12. Family Structure …………………………….. 1363
13. Intellectual Functioning ………………………. 1364
14. Family Criminality ………………………….. 1365
15. Gender …………………………………….. 1365
16. Socio-Economic Status of Origin ……………… 1366
17. Personal Distresss …………………………… 1366

Why shouldn’t a federal judge take these 16 other variables into account when deciding what sentence to impose, particularly when the judge is trying to reduce the federal prison population be selecting out the “non-violent?” Go ahead, make my day!

RGK

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